“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social in reference to Iran’s aging dictator, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Trump then followed that post up with this: “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

These messages from Trump came a day after he left the G7 summit in Canada early, with little explanation other than telling reporters, “I have to be back as soon as I can. … I have to be back early for obvious reasons.”

Those obvious reasons, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, had to do with “what’s going on in the Middle East.” In other words, the current state of the war between Israel and Iran.

As Israel initiated aggressive strikes last Friday, it followed up with a number of other targeted attacks that have dealt significant damage not only to Iran’s nuclear development program but also its military leadership. Khamenei now finds himself surrounded by an inner circle that is collapsing around him by the day.

The strikes came after two months of the Trump administration’s negotiation efforts with Tehran, during which Trump warned Iran’s leaders to make a deal. But the element of any potential deal that was untenable to Iran was Trump’s demand that it give up its nuclear enrichment efforts, which it needs in order to meet its goal of building a nuclear bomb.

After arriving back in Washington on Monday, Trump again issued another warning to Iran, telling the people living in Tehran to evacuate the city. Many media pundits took this as Trump indicating that he was going to send in the U.S. military to assist Israel in attacking Iran.

This caused widespread consternation, with some commentators warning that such a move could ignite World War III. When questioned about his statement, Trump denied issuing a threat and said he just wanted “people to be safe.” However, he also warned Tehran he would “come down so hard if they do anything to our people. … I think they know not to touch our troops.”

It has also been reported that Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei. “Have the Iranians killed an American yet? No,” an unnamed senior U.S. official stated. “Until they do, we’re not even talking about going after the political leadership.” However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the report “false,” adding, “That never happened.”

The latest report is that the 89-year-old Khamenei is said to be in a “poor mental state,” and Iran’s “military commanders are hiding the reality of the war from him in order to manage his mental state.” If this report is true, then Khamenei is clearly not calling the shots. (That sounds familiar.) Perhaps he doesn’t even know the war has come to his very doorstep, as Trump pointedly stated.

This revelation raises the obvious question: Who is currently leading Iran? Is the regime of the Ayatollah on the verge of collapse? Will Iranians who have three times in the past 20 years sought to rise up against the Ayatollah, only to get crushed by his elite Revolutionary Guards, finally have the opportunity to throw off the oppressive jihadi theocracy that first took power back in 1979?

What we know is that Trump has been consistent in his stance regarding Iran, which he reiterated on Monday on Truth Social: “Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

Trump has not wavered on that crucial point. Apparently, Iran believes in its negotiations with the Trump administration that it could string Trump along and eventually get some concessions from him, such as a relaxation of economic sanctions, because the leadership did not believe Trump would simply leave the table and let Israel attack.

Meanwhile, the Iranian crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, who has lived in exile since his father, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, was overthrown in 1979 by the Islamic Revolution, is calling on his fellow countrymen to “overthrow the Islamic Republic through street protests and nationwide strikes.”

Should such a scenario occur, in which Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary government are deposed by Iranians, who will then rise to fill that power vacuum? These concerns are likely among the deliberations of the Trump administration and the Israeli government.

The hoped-for outcome of this conflict is an Iran completely disarmed of any future nuclear threat and, ideally, new leadership in Tehran that eschews the Islamic Revolution and adopts a secular system of government. Obviously, that’s a lot easier said than done.